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4/24/17

Dalradian (DNA.to). Galantas (GAL.v). Northern Ireland Police. Explosives. Mailbag.

Your humble scribe receives mail this morning from reader 'GA', a nice lady who has agreed to let me reproduce this part on the blog:
"...do you think the GAL news affects Dalradian?  They use explosives don't they?  Do Northern Ireland not like Canadian miners and are stopping them with this?"
For the record GA is currently a holder of DNA.to stock and I'm not. Answer: To begin, DNA uses explosive to a certain extent in its current exploration phase, but they'll really need explosives a lot if/when the mine goes into production. As for the question my best guess, after reading the last couple of NRs from GAL.v carefully, is that there's more than meets the eye about the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) decision not to play ball with GAL.v and its Omagh mine. There are two things that stick out:

1) There may be specific problems between the mining company and the police (or locals) and this is a way they've found of putting the kibosh on the project. If so, DNA isn't likely to suffer in the same way.

2) There's a payment issue which seems to revolve around the failure to close on the "cost-recovery agreement" (i.e the police want the mine to pay for their time). The way GAL.v frame it, stating that other mines don't have to pay so why should they, suggests this may be a new policy at the PSNI. If so then yes, this could well become an issue further down the line for DNA.

Either way, it certainly doesn't help the political risk perception of working in Northern Ireland. All that and Brexit, too.

Galantas Gold (GAL.v): Chalk up another success for "The IKN First Law of Mining News Releases"

Remember this post back on April 13th, less than two weeks ago? In it we noted that Galantas Gold (GAL.v) says its tunnel development was "temporarily on hold" while they work out a deal with the Northern Irish police on explosives handling, but the problem "is not expect to exceed one month". This set off the red flags at this humble corner of cyberspace because around here, we have the tried and tested First Law of Mining NRs which goes like this:
"The IKN First Law of Mining News Releases: Considering that anything contained in a mining news release is presented in the best possible way for the company in question, any piece of information contained in a NR that comes across in any way negative means the real news and/or events behind it must be very, very bad indeed."

Cut to the wee small hours of this morning and the latest NR out of GAL.v. Read it here and there's plenty in it, but the pay dirt is this:
Galantas Gold Corporation ("Galantas" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:GAL)(AIM:GAL) has received notification that the Police Service of Northern Ireland ("PSNI") will not provide its required anti-terrorism cover in regard to blasting operations required for mine development at the Omagh Gold Mine.

The First Law of Mining NRs told you to stay away. This morning GAL.v is already 16% down and we'd wager there's a lot lower to go.

4/23/17

The IKN Weekly, out now



IKN414 has just been sent to subscribers. As for the Cessna 414, I'll let my pal and mega-pilot "W" explain all:
Everybody loved it because it was roomy and comfortable and, for the time, had good cruise performance.  However the airplane was really quite underpowered and in today's world not many pilots are still comfortable flying them.  If you lose an engine right after takeoff you can only manage about 300ft/minute climb rate on the remaining engine, which is not a lot when you consider minimum safe speed is about 120kts.  And then only if you were careful about weight and balance, if not get ready to meet your maker.

He has IKN421 reserved, too. What a total propellerhead nerd.

Messi and The Matrix

Here's an excerpt from this piece entitled "What if we’re living in a computer simulation?" that I found myself reading yesterday:

The simulation hypothesis has entered the culture as an explanatory meme. Writing in the New Yorker earlier this year, the critic Adam Gopnik suggested that the Oscar confusion, in which La La Land was wrongly given the best film award meant for Moonlight, the election of Donald Trump, and the improbable late comeback by the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl showed “that we are living in the matrix, and something has gone wrong with the controllers”.

Anyone who watched Leo Messi score in the 92nd and last minute of the Real Madrid/Barcelona game today to win the game for Barsa 3-2 will know the feeling.

Macro(n)-economics



The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "How to add breadth to the GDXJ: A proposal". I got some really interesting feedback from this post.


Second Place: "A rarity: A geopolitical event that may affect the price of gold for longer than a day", a post very early in the week carrying a France voter intention poll that showed how close it was between the top four candidates. Now somewhat out of date, as these words are written we're just hours from the results of the round one vote.
 
First Place: "If you knew what I knew about Red Eagle Mining (R.to)...", because the peanut gallery loves posts like this. I really shouldn't get tempted into writing them. The third placed post is what IKN should do more often, not this clickbait crap.

4/22/17

The 2017 Colombia Gold Symposium is taking shape

Over at his blog, Paul Harris of The Colombia Gold Letter and organizer of the Colombia Gold Symposium updates us today on how this year's event, scheduled for November, is shaping up. We already know that Rick Rule is keynote speaker at the event (a decent catch) and now we have news that Atico Mining (ATY.v) and Red Eagle Mining (R.to) are sponsors and will offer site visits to participants this year.

If you're interested in attending, you can find out everything you need to know on those links. And as IKN is also a sponsor of this year's event, your humble scribe is bound to be there for the week as well (though that may well put you off the idea).

4/21/17

Angry Geologist does Arizona Mining (AZ.to)

And does it well. Go here.

The Friday OT: Prince at the 2004 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

This brought a lump to my throat, it's one year ago that the world saw the headline "Prince dead" and the measure of his greatness is that nobody asked "who?" or "which Prince?", the one word was enough for global mourning to set in.

However we must celebrate his talent. He was a peerless live act and went way too soon but here's a reminder of how good he was on stage, the full ten minute opening act from the awards ceremony which includes a top Kiss and the best and I mean the very damned best version of Let's Go Crazy ever.



And once again, marvel at his world class guitar work, he was up there with any of them just on that instrument. Youtube here.

Mongolian Airlines, the exciting way to fly

From a pal, who sent this picture over with the note, "From the Mongolian Airlines website translated by Google":



Bless them forever. In the mood for an exciting flight?

Crapstone Mining's (CS.to) debt: Parsing The Pylot

Here are the comments of CEO Darren "Drop The" Pylot in today's NR just out that announces amendments to its credit facility. IKN explains what he's saying in the blue type.

"This extension of our current low-cost, flexible credit facility, gives Capstone significant financial flexibility (we were in the shit) and right sizes the facility to meet our current and anticipated operating requirements," said Darren Pylot, President and CEO of Capstone. "Our current drawn debt of approximately $300 million is comfortably within this amended availability (uncomfortably high) and we have a cash balance of over $100 million (which should frighten the crap out of you, because it was over $130m at the end of 2016)."
"We plan to apply free cash from operations to reduce debt to a sustainable level (our debt is currently unsustainable) at commodity prices that reflect bottom of the cycle prices (if today's price are at the bottom why did we hedge our production?), which will provide an additional cushion of undrawn credit," continued Mr. Pylot. "This effectively addresses financing risk over the term of the facility (we are financially risky), which we believe will correspond to a stabilization and gradual improvement in copper prices."

Further questions?

Asanko Gold (AKG) is now hiding data

If you remember back to April 13th, this humble corner of cyberspace noted the rumour about an upcoming faked geotechnical safety issue at Asanko (AKG) and its Nkran mine, something the company was planning to use in order to hide the fact that it was running out of mineral ore way before they'd previously promised (but on track with the K2 short thesis, strangely enough). We ended that post with these words:
"For an early signal that this is the plan, watch the Q1 and Q2 strip rates as well as any minority use of the stockpile."
Cut to April 18th and the AKG 1q17 production report (out while your humble scribe was on the road and visiting a different company's project) which you can find here. In it we see that yes indeed, the headline strip rate moved up sharply, from 4.6X to 5.5X. But Wait! There's More! Because their overall grade dropped as well (ugh) so if you adjust for that, their apples-to-apples strip rate was more like 6.25X in Q1, bigtime higher.

However the really funny thing in the 1q17 NR was that they didn't include any stockpile commentary or the stockpile data table. Yes AKG, of course it's mere coincidence that just days after the IKN post you decided that stockpile information was no longer worthy of market scrutiny and so you left it out for the first time ever in all your production NRs ever since declaring commercial production. Got something to hide, guys?

PS: AKG is down 10.1% since April 13th. Just sayin'.